Brexit Aftermath: Xenophobia or Anti-Terrorism?

I haven’t expected the Leave camp to actually win especially the Remain camp had been leading the polls ever since a labour MP got murdered by some neo-nazi fanatic a week or 2 ago. Not that I side with the Remain camp though, I’m actually neutral because there are pros and cons on both sides.

With Bremain, I like it because of the stability it brings. It’s going to be “business as usual” for everyone, and I only have to anticipate for the next Fed rate hike—aside from waiting for US election and hoping Hillary wins, and waiting for the Philippine’s Duterte administration to manipulate renegotiate ties with China amidst the the latter’s victory in taking over the South China sea. No offense to SEA countries, but the fact China already built infrastructures there and working their way to extract whatever resources they can instead of those SEA countries benefiting from their own land, I mean China already won. Never mind the international arbitration, all they do is talk. Action is more important here.

With Brexit, which is now the reality (unless Cameron and other officials end up not invoking Article 50 to formalize and finalize UK’s separation from EU), there is too much instability and uncertainty. Volatility is good to a certain extent in trading, but uncertainty and the likelihood of more black swan events coming like other EU countries calling for their own referendum also and leaving EU, the market is going to be crazy–in the short run. But in the long run, I think it’s gonna be good. Nobody seems to talk about it and merely focus on how British people are being racist and xenophobic like Trump. In my own opinion, it’s a good move by UK to be able to fight terrorism better by having more control over their borders. I don’t mean to label immigrants as terrorists, but there have been incidents of ISIS terrorists hiding within immigrants.UK is one of the top powerful countries in the world and a great ally to US. It has all the reasons to be in a safer position now.

What’s next? No one has enough balls to be in charge after Brexit. Also, Scotland might call its own referendum to leave UK because it prefers to be part of EU. I do hope that in the event other countries follow UK in leaving EU, they remain stronger in the long run especially less bureaucracy from ECB then.

When it comes to trading, we expect some uncertainty in the short-run. If one happens to be a risk taker and wanted to follow George Soro’s break-the-bank-of-England legacy, then by all means, continue going short GBPUSD and even EURUSD, and long in EURGBP. If not, it’s best to wait it out, possibly go short in USDJPY, and long in XAUUSD and XAGUSD only instead. If one has access in the commodities market, all the better go long in Gold.


 

TRADE SETUPS FOR THE WEEK (6/27-7/1)

I didn’t enter into any trade last week to avoid any whipsaws and other bad stuff, and it’s more likely that I’ll still do the same this week except for USDJPY which is the only currency pair I might trade this week. Regardless, here are my setups for the week:

 

1. EURUSD – sideways volatile, wait for break/bounce @1.08899
 photo 6-27-16_EURUSD_zpsnoagsz2v.png

 

2. GBPUSD – trend, sell (watch out for bounce/break @1.28181 first
 photo 6-27-16_GBPUSD_zpstwbl7e89.png

 

3. EURGBP – trend, buy (wait for break @0.84752)
 photo 6-27-16_EURGBP_zpse5fcfxpu.png

 

4. USDJPY – trend, sell (wait for break @101.317 first)
 photo 6-27-16_USDJPY_zpszmaqii5i.png

 

5. XAGUSD – sideways normal, wait for confirmed trend after 17.568 or 17.954 break
 photo 6-27-16_XAGUSD_zpsdl2sqpc3.png

 

6. XAUUSD – sideways normal, wait for break @1331.56 or 1304.70
 photo 6-27-16_XAUUSD_zpsvpkzij5r.png

 

7. AUDUSD – sideways volatile, wait for bounce @0.73119
 photo 6-27-16_AUDUSD_zps1ktw7jsy.png

 

8. NZDUSD – sideways volatile, wait for bounce @0.69627
 photo 6-27-16_NZDUSD_zpsvl3fnvfe.png

 

9. USDCAD – sideways  volatile, wait for break @1.31254
 photo 6-27-16_USDCAD_zpsfqo633an.png

 

10. USDMXN – sideways volatile, wait for break/bounce @19.3314
 photo 6-27-16_USDMXN_zpsev0rsfmz.png

 

11. USDTRY – sideways volatile, wait for break/bounce @19.3314
 photo 6-27-16_USDTRY_zpsk1u8iyke.png

 

12. USDZAR –  sideways volatile, wait for bounce/break @15.59355
 photo 6-27-16_USDZAR_zpsre1vtctn.png

 

The setups above aren’t my buy/sell stops. They simply serve as my guide and means that I watch out for those zones/price levels and take action depending on latest fundamentals. These levels change throughout the week especially when markets are very volatile. These are just my personal setups and by no means serve as recommendation to others especially everyone has different personalities and strategies. Trading involves substantial risk and not suitable for all. It’s every person’s responsibility to manage his own risk and money well, and not blindly follow other people’s advice.

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